
By now, Gentle Reader, you’ve no doubt heard about the Senate race in Alaska, where no winner has been projected a week and a half after Election Day. The contest between Republican incumbent Dan S. Sullivan (hereafter: DSS) and Democratic candidate Mary Peltola is complicated by the presence on the ballot of Daniel J. Sullivan, Jr. (DJS), a retired schoolteacher.
There are, of course, two issues here: the ethical and the
pragmatic. Both Peltola and DJS deny any
collusion to confuse voters and tilt the vote towards Peltola. It’s conceivable that they’re telling the
truth, although Curmie is skeptical, to say the least. The fact that DJS wanted to be listed on the
ballot as a Republican although he had no apparent links to the party certainly
suggests that he wanted to be a spoiler.
That doesn’t mean than Peltola endorsed, or even knew about, what DJS
was up to. But she’s a politician, so
it’s best not to assume innocence. And
if the New York Times accuses the Democrats of chicanery, there’s enough smoke to strongly suspect a flame
if not a conflagration.
That said… Curmie, as those who know him personally will
attest, has a common name.
Whitepages.com is
currently saying there are a little under 9000 people in this country with the
same first and last name as Curmie. (It
was over 13,000 back in 2015, when Curmie wrote about the phenomenon.) One suspects there are more that that. There were three at a college of 4000-ish
students in Curmie’s freshman year.
Another lives around here somewhere and isn’t really good about paying
his bills, so Curmie gets hassled by collection agencies for someone else’s
debts every couple of years.
Dan Sullivan is a common enough name; there are over 2700 of them, apparently. It’s hypothetically possible that more than one might be interested in being a Senator for reasons other than creating confusion. After all, Curmie has spent his career working in theatre, and there’s another guy with the same name acting fairly frequently in community theatre in Curmie’s hometown of a little over 30,000 people. If Curmie decided to try to get back into acting, would he be denied the opportunity because there’s already a guy with that name? (We aren’t talking about a SAG or Equity gig here.)
But however much we are or are not suspicious of DJS’s motives, it’s important that we understand what, exactly, is happening in Alaska. Let’s start with logistics. Alaska handles elections a little differently than most states do. Voters aren’t limited to choosing among members of their own party in the primaries; the top four candidates, whatever their affiliation or lack thereof, appear on the general election ballot.
Then, ranked choice voting kicks in. If one candidate achieves a majority of the
votes, we’re done. But with more than
two candidates, there’s a distinct possibility that the leading vote-getter
would get a plurality rather than a majority.
In that case, ballots from people for voted for the candidate who placed
fourth would be switched to the candidate they ranked second. The process would be repeated if necessary,
leading to one candidate with more than half the votes.
Let us pause for a moment and note that Curmie is a fan of
this system. There are two significant
advantages. First, it significantly
lessens the chances that a candidate actually opposed by the majority of voters
would get elected. It’s not hard to
imagine a situation in which the votes split 40/30/30, and 60% of the voters
would choose Darth Vader over the candidate with 40%.
Curmie suspects that we might well have been spared a Trump
presidency or indeed candidacy had such a system been in place for the
primaries in 2016. Trump won the primary
in Curmie’s native state of New Hampshire with barely over a third of the
votes. Curmie is pretty sure Trump was
virtually no one’s second (or third or fourth…) choice, and a Not Trump
candidate would have won… we just don’t know which one. But with the GOP awarding all the delegates
to the winner, all the other candidates—Kasich, Cruz, J. Bush, Rubio, and
Christie—ended up taking votes away from each other in state after state until
they all ran out of both money and a reasonable chance at the nomination.
The other reason to support the ranked choice system is one
that resonates with Curmie a good deal.
Let’s say your favorite candidate represents a third party: the Greens,
for example. You know very well that the
race will be won by either the Republican or the Democrat. So, do you vote Green and hurt the Democrat’s
chances, or do you pass up the opportunity to let the Democrat know that
they’re not your cup of tea, they’re just not as bad as the Republican? The same phenomenon would apply to
Libertarians and Republicans, of course.
Ranked voting solves the problem.
Ah, but we stray. Revenons
à nos moutons.
We’re back at DJS’s presence on the ballot. We can agree, Gentle Reader, that if there
was any intent to deceive the voters, as appears pretty damned likely, DJS and
possibly Peltola engaged in unethical, even if (probably) legal, conduct. But hey, it was clever, right? Actually, no, it wasn’t.
Such a strategy might work in a different state, one where a
candidate can win with a plurality of the votes, but not in a ranked choice election. A vote for DJS is a vote Peltola doesn’t get
in her quest for a majority of the votes.
It doesn’t matter if she gets more first choice votes than DSS, only if
she gets a majority. The presence of DJS
(and another candidate, Gerald Heikes, who’s listed as a registered Republican)
on the ballot makes it quite likely that the process will include looking at
the second choice of folks who voted for the fourth-place, or possibly even third-place,
finishers, and it’s unlikely that someone who intended to vote for DSS would
list Peltola as their second choice. As
of this writing, Peltola has just over 49% of the first-choice votes.
Of course, the DOJ, which cares more about pandering to Dear
Leader’s posturing than about… you know… justice, filed suit to prevent certification of the election if Peltola wins. Thing is, though, she can’t win unless
she has more votes than DSS and DJS (and Heikes) combined. That’s the essential quality of ranked choice
voting. A federal judge rightly
dismissed the suit,
although not for the reasons Curmie would have done so.
The objections rely on not merely confusion, but upon the
rather presumptuous claim that a vote for DJS was intended to be for DSS. This appears to not be the case, as a report
in the Anchorage Daily News suggests that voters who chose DJS as their first choice were nearly twice as
likely to list Peltola rather than DSS as their second choice. (Full disclosure: over a third of DJS voters
listed no second choice.) There’s a
pretty clear message here: these folks aren’t thrilled with Peltola, but they
prefer her to someone they perceive as a water-carrier for a corrupt authoritarian
toddler. (Curmie
Moreover, let’s take a look at that ballot shown at the top
of the page. That’s a photograph of the
actual ballot, as shown on the website (linked above) of NPR station KYUK in
Bethel, AK. You will notice, Gentle
Reader, that DSS is listed as both a registered Republican and the incumbent;
DJS is neither. Dear Leader, of course,
has proclaimed that “You need about a 190 IQ to figure out the ballot” because
people are too ignorant to know what “incumbent” means. Curmie smiles benevolently and grants that
such a claim might indeed be true about a fair number of MAGAs. But he suspects that even those folks know what
“Republican” means.
You do indeed have to be a special kind of stupid (okay,
maybe ignorant) to get confused by that ballot.
To top things off, of course, Alaska has been a Republican stronghold
for decades. They held the governorship
and both houses of the legislature coming into this election cycle. Yet presumably these are the folks who
orchestrated an indecipherable ballot to sway the election to the
Democrat. (Would now be a good time to
remind you, Gentle Reader, that the 2020 presidential election that Trump
insists was rigged was in fact the only one conducted under his administration?)
Things could still get very interesting. No non-partisan source has called the race, although
the Peltola camp is stopping just short of claiming victory. As of this writing, she has about a 1600 vote
lead over the two Sullivans combined… but it is Heikes, not DSS, who’s in third
place. One might reasonably suspect that
the second choice of someone who voted for a registered Republican might very
well be the other registered Republican on the ballot, namely DSS. It is quite possible, in other words, that
either of the top vote-getters might emerge victorious. Here’s hoping the loser will concede graciously
when the time arrives.
Hey, even Curmudgeons can dream.




